Is Bihar Election Results, A reflection of India ?

Few astonished youths were discussing in a office premises in leisure time of lunch, 32 seats in Lok Sabha and sudden loose in Bihar state assembly, is it fair !!!!

I was thinking overnight and talked with many friends and experts, those have keen watch on Indian Politics, Social Media and very true –  true Modi lovers and expert people from different different fields. Based on various discussions and data sharing, this blog took shape.

27^th Oct 2013, 5 exploded bombs in Patna, Gandhi Maidan rocked entire India, lakhs of crowd was waiting for Modiji, he came. Crowd cheered, he addressed and in the end- gave a hint – Go slow, take care, while returning to your homes.

20^th May 2014, when entire India and off course Modi fannisters were celebrating victory of Lok Sabha Polls, Bihar and UP was the state, who gave maximum charm. And biggest rival of Modi, Mr Kumar resigned afterward and here the story begins.

File Pic. via FirstPost.com

Bihar and UP consist 1/4^th India, maximum number of  youths below 25 and 35. Talented youths -  IAS, IPS and various recognized posts. Second category – maximum numbers of Manual Casual labors and third category – farmers.

Modiji came like a masiha, youths were dancing on his rhythm. Suddenly Modiji announced, we should get ready to take bitter medicine and reforms begin. Alright, things were moving on their places, many government departments undergone with review. Government decided to go on quality works in government facilities.

Youths and casual labors/private employees eyeing on Achhe Din, received a biggest jolt when India, World’s 4^th largest steel producer turned net steel importer in the year to March 31, 2015 as an oversupplied China flooded it with cheap metals mainly for constructions. Big steel giants like SAIL, Bhusan, JSPL, JSW, Kalyani Steels were the biggest looser as India’s steel imports were jumped up to 72% in the fiscal year to end-March to 9.3 million tones and April-June, it was 49% approx 7.23 million tones.

A worker cuts a steel rod inside a Steel Factory. File Pic. via In.Reuters.com 

Consequences were that much worse, Bhusan received Q2 net loss of Rs 733 crore, Tata steels sales dropped by 17%, JSPL was forced to reduce price  by 25%, JSW productions also declined. Till then India was importing 1 million tones of steel a month, 12% import duty was not enough to protect Indian local industry.

In Sep-2015, Govt announced  20% Safeguard import duty on select steel products from recent surge in inward shipments.

23^rd Nov 2015, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said – Government is considering proactive steps to improve the health of Steel and Aluminum sectors, which are ruling under the impact of decline in global prices.

 Coal crisis was another setback for youths and casual labors/private employees eyeing on more job opportunities in India. Mostly Power companies bagging captive mines were unlikely to resolve the power crisis as about 75% of power capacity tied to these blocks do not have PPA (Power purchase agreement) with any state and those have no PPA were likely to suffer losses and turn into non-profitable assets. This is about 7,878MW commissioned and 12,399MW about to commission. Since, PPA were not signed, looking at payout, such companies became bankrupt.

A coal mine in odisha. Pic. via Vivan Mehra

Govt made Rs 400,000 crore by auction and allotment of 67 Coal blocks. But Coal auction failed to push production, only 25% blocks resume output of the 24 producing coal blocks auctioned to private companies and allotted to state utilities, only six have commenced production, of a combined 2.5 million tones (mt).

Hindalco Industries  bagged three coal mines in the Schedule-II auction — something that certainly paves the way for partial raw material security for the company but the market was not seem to be impressed. This is evident from the fact that the Hindalco stocks fallen six per cent afterward.

“The company runs the risk of locking itself at high captive costs. While the mines are already being purchased at close to or higher than the e-auction landed price, the cost differential is likely to widen in the long term due to the annual escalation clause on bids,” said Abhisar Jain, senior analyst with Centrum Broking.

Now in forth stage of coal-auction, The government is in the process of finalizing 8-10 blocks for the unregulated non-power sectors including cement, steel and aluminum, although the official was tight-lipped on the total reserves extractable from these mines.

First cancellation of more than 200 Coal Blocks, then fall of Steel Industry, Coal crisis and purchasing of coal mines at high rate claimed a new slowdown in Indian Industry – core sector, metal sector, coal sector, mining, transport section etc all are widely effected and most them were private employees, casual labors, engineers, and subsidiaries companies and their employees. Entire India knows – who are the most claimed casual labors, private employees and employed people- definitely Biharis.

Pic. via Shutterstock

Also few rumors also spread in the market that NDA Govt is taking revenge from UPA friendly companies. Current employees suffered, fresh waiting for employment suffered, youths got suffered and mostly are from Bihar or UP or nearby states.

There are following reasons, which were directly or indirectly joined hands in defeat of #BJP in Bihar :

1.     Unemployment – Slowdown of current businesses/Industries are fail to bring new employment to Biharis in Bihar or any part of India.

2.     Problem in current employment - As discussed about slowdown in Steel, Power, Core sectors etc., lakhs of employees effected. Some of them lost their jobs, many have not received their payments on time, were forced to comprise in the same job and even some of them are forced to continue low profile jobs than their previous jobs. Mostly low profile employees are from Bihar and nearby states.

3.     No sign of new Employment  - Modiji committed lots of things in Bihar. From agriculture to opening of Rice Mills & Fertilizers factories – Neem coating – Bla … Bla.. Bla..

Youths and casual labors failed to get a single opportunity of employment by BJP in Bihar or any other parts of India, causes & claimed due to Modi Govt.

4.     No opening in Government Jobs - 50% population of Bihar are mostly youths and below 25 and 35. Either casual labors, students, aspirants or farmers in category. Even educated youths of Bihar also do not received any concrete opening in Govt jobs, neither in Bihar nor in other parts of India.

5.     Mahangaae - Pulses (Dal) prices were touching sky rocket, and BJP Govt awoke very late, just in between elections. Repeated raids collected lakh tones of Pulses in various parts of India but very late. Mahangaae was on top agenda of Modiji. So he fail to impress the voters of Bihar. Strict actions were needed to formulate earlier to control rise of cost of pulses or similar products. A bad impression reached to people that current Govt is also sleeping like others or least bother about problems of poor community.

6.     Aarakshan or too much democracy in BJP - Initiation by RSS supremo on Aarakshan and inflammatory speeches or dialogues by several BJP leaders on  Dadri- Akhlakh killing then dalit- Sunapeda helped to polarize all OBC, EBC, SC/ST votes away from BJP.

7.     State leaders were on back foot - Election campaign was taking place like corporate duties. Amit Shah and Modiji forced all leaders out of game, people started lagging state faces. Normally a WIFE also complains if too much interference from Father/Mother-In-Laws and his husband is silently obeying to them. This was reflecting a kind of immatureness of state leadership.

8.     Flop show on Social Media - Flop show by BJP team continued in Bihar after Delhi elections. Crusaders fail to align youths of Bihar in main stream of BJP like Lok Sabha Polls.

9.     No where Kisans in loop - God knows, BJP knows or does not know, India is country of farmers and 70% people stays in India and Bihar.

10.  Power Pack of Poverty - SECC surveys say that 74% people of Rural India still earns less than Rs 5000 and in Bihar, it is around 71%. BJP fails to impress the last line crusaders – Antyoday. Not a single plan came for such, who can touch them heartily except Jan_Dhan Yojana.  But Jan_Dhan is all about their own earnings and income.

11.  Delay in Coal-Block distribution - Delay in coal block distributions and auctions at high rate also curtain the Industrial growth of India. Local Industry suffered widely, coal prices are touching sky rocket. Rs 600/- per ton coal is now available @ Rs 2500/-. Small Industries were forced to shut down in crisis of coal or high captive costs. Similar way, maximum sufferers are the Bihari labors, and low profile staffs working in various Industries.

12.   Rumors in Industry Sector - In revenge to UPA friendly Industries, Modi Govt is not taking any initiatives to enhance their conditions. Situations are worsened in such a way that, employees, labors, low profile staffs are not getting salary on time or delayed by 3-4 months. Hence family members, those are residing in Bihar, were in revenge mode while casting their votes for non-cooperation of BJP Central Govt to concern Industries. Entire India knows about the strength and contribution of Bihari labors in Industry. Lakhs of Bihari labors, private employees are associated with more than 100 of big companies and more than 1000 small Industries throughout India. 

Similar type of Challenges, BJP is going to face in Uttar Pradesh elections in 2017. Prima Facia this is story of entire India but various places have their own priorities.

Bihar and UP’s first love is a Job, least bother about developments and facilities, they can compromise.

Western India wants good facilities, they can compromise in Jobs.

Modi Govt has achieved lots of milestones in Defence, Internal Securities and Foreign Relations including FDI, Investments, advent of Technology. But Modi Govt must realize that there is a electoral process before and after every Govt. Our 70% populations are Youths, Villagers, Casual Labors and most important Electoral Voters. Its better to develop 100 Industrial corridors and 100 Software parks than 100 Smart Cities. We can wait for Bullet trains, standard facilities, Wi-Fi  but it is mandatory to impress the last line of Society. Programs should run from Bottom to Top, not from Corporate to Casual labors welfare. Middle class can take care of themselves if they will get social and internal security but it is very important that #Modi Govt invest his starting 10 years  for welfare of UP-Bihar-Bengal and Kisans-Casual Labors-Youths of entire India. Rest problems will automatically resolved, once Metros and mega towns will be free from outsiders of states. Facilities will enhance automatically. Rest on Defense and Foreign dialogues, Modiji is performing outstanding and Forbes has accepted him as 9^th Powerful Leader of World.

Reference : 1.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki and several news channels
                     2. Socio-Economic and Caste Census 2011 released by govt of India.
                     3. www.hindustantimes.com
                     4. www.business-standards.com
                     5. www.indiatoday.in

Two Titanic, Sinking Ships of India – Bihar and Odisha

Asoka The Great attacked on that powerful & trade hub state Kalinga, where Kharavela from Mahameghavahana dyanasty was ruling  in 261 BC. The cruel king of Maurya dynasty fought a deadly fight near Daya river, almost 1.5 lakhs people killed in that and finally Asoka won but lost his cruelness. He became Buddhists saint and started spreading Buddhism with Karuvaki. Kharavela was great warrior and was responsible for propagation of Jainism in Indian sub-continent.

Pic. via The Hindu

Recalling the powerful, glorious and historical past of both states, make us proud and very delightful. Bihar and Odisha both separated from Bengal in 1^st April 1936, recognized as two different states. At present GDP of Bihar is around $59.4 billion, Odisha is around $46 billion.  If we look for the distributions of their economy, in Bihar – 22% agriculture, 5% Industry and 73% service whereas in Odisha – 15.4% agriculture, 33.34% industry and 51% services. Population of both states are 9.3 crore and 4.3 crore respectively. Growth rate of both states is not so smooth. 

Growth rates of both states are given below :

FY                                Bihar                   Odisha

2007-08                      7.6%                      10.95%

2008-09                      14.5%                    7.75%

2009-10                      10.5%                    4.55%

2010-11                      14.7%                    7.50%

2011-12                      13.1%                    4.94%

2012-13                      15.05%                  9.40%

2013-14                      8.82%                    5.60%

2014-15                      9.92%                    8.78%

Bihar is expecting 10% growth, Odisha is eyeing with 8.1% and India as a whole on 7.5% - 8.5% in 2015-16.  As on today India has achieved 7.3%, for the first time, GDP has crossed the magic mark of $ 2.06 trillion.

These figures may be looking somehow fruitful in India but in Bihar and Odisha, it is red-triggered. We will go on ground reality, we will find that 90% households of Bihar still lives in rural areas, in Odisha, it is around 87% out of that 0.03% households has no shelter in Bihar, 0.06% in Odisha. Around 59% households of Bihar are casual labors, 65% households has no land, 18% households are engaged in agricultural works. Same hand in Odisha, 70.5% households are casual labors, 54% households has no land, 23% households are engaged in agricultural works.

Pic. via Timesofindia.com

Coming to income in Bihar, around  70% households earn less than Rs 5000 in a month whereas condition of Odisha is furious, it is around 87.88%. Around 54,199 houses of Odisha are fully dependent on alms, provided by govt. Around 4% female households are either widow or divorced in Odisha, who has no care taker.

SC/ST people are most neglected one in society and are maximum sufferer of any kind of developments, due to their indigenous claims over dependency on land and forest but such dependency never taken in accounts except few onetime payment of some financial supports. From British rule, we are following the principle of “Eminent Domain” which means any unclaimed land or land without patta is govt property and hence SC/ST people are maximum sufferers because they never owns any lands due to their Khanabadosh nature.

Pic. via TheHindu

SC people are around 3.33 crores households in India, 29 lakhs households in Bihar and 15 lakhs households in Odisha. SC are around 2 crores households in India, 3 lakhs households in Bihar and around 20 lakhs households in Odisha. 23% households of tribal and 16% households of SC in Odisha earns less than Rs 5000 same hand in Bihar it is 1% households of tribal and 14% households of SC earns less than Rs 5000. Not only that only 1% household of tribal in Bihar are engaged in agriculture in Bihar, rest 15% households are manual labors and others are engaged in different different works. Only 1% households of SC are engaged in agriculture, 14% are manual labors and rest in small small jobs. In Odisha, around 2.36% tribal households and 2% SC households are engaged in agricultural works, 13% tribal households and 13% SC households people are working as manual labors and rest in small jobs. 0.54% SC households and 0.48% tribal households are engaged in govt jobs in Odisha.

Pic. via IndianExpress

Conditions of women are also very worse in Odisha and Bihar. Around 50% women are illiterate. Around 1.7 lakhs women households in Odisha are engaged in agricultural works, 6 lakhs households as manual labors, 1% households in various small works and heads their houses. In Bihar, 2.5 lakhs women households are engaged in agriculture, 12 lakhs households as manual labors and 0.5% households in various small jobs to serve their households. Around 50000 women households in Odisha are engaged as domestic servant and around 24 thousand households are fully dependent on begging/alms.

Odisha has 25% India’s iron reserves, 10% steel productions, top producer of aluminum, owning 7381 MW of power plants, coal reserves, bauxite reserves, Manganese reserves etc are available with lots of other resources but still Odisha is poorest in India. Bihar carries 58% population below 25 years, wide range of human resources, plenty of fertile lands, still industrial revolution in Bihar is awaited.

Lack of political willingness, extreme poverty, illiteracy, corruption and lack of vision of future roadmaps and policies are few major problems of Bihar and Odisha. In Bihar, leaders are engaged in caste and vote bank politics, whereas, in Odisha, leaders are engaged in freebie-politics.

Pic, via NewIndianExpress

Major reasons of Titanic tragedy was :

Warnings ignored: Before journey of Titanic, several warnings were issued about iceberg but crew had ignored all.

Binoculars were locked: Binoculars of Titanic were locked up by crew members, hence they fail to see iceberg from marginal distance.

Less life Boats: Titanic had very less life boats.

Steering error: Major reason of Titanic drawing was steering error. It was told to push the tiller right to make the ship head left, but in wrong communication it reached to down label to push the ship turn right.

High speed: Over confident screw of Titanic was running ship at high speed of 22 nots (41kmph), just few less than maximum speed 24 knots (44kmph). Low grade iron rivets were used in manufacturing of Titanic.

Same way, Odisha and Bihar are running on instant profit making paths, ignoring all warnings and inputs. Poor governance and high corruption has made lots of things miserable. Freebie, unemployment, political interests and lack of capacity building are few reasons, which are carrying both states on the path of self destructions. In Bihar, wrong political moves has destroyed all arithmetic calculations. Corruptions, Kidnapping and crimes are rising heads. 

Reference : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki and several news channels
and Socio-Economic and Caste Census 2011 released by govt of India.