Is Bihar Election Results, A reflection of India ?

Few astonished youths were discussing in a office premises in leisure time of lunch, 32 seats in Lok Sabha and sudden loose in Bihar state assembly, is it fair !!!!

I was thinking overnight and talked with many friends and experts, those have keen watch on Indian Politics, Social Media and very true –  true Modi lovers and expert people from different different fields. Based on various discussions and data sharing, this blog took shape.

27^th Oct 2013, 5 exploded bombs in Patna, Gandhi Maidan rocked entire India, lakhs of crowd was waiting for Modiji, he came. Crowd cheered, he addressed and in the end- gave a hint – Go slow, take care, while returning to your homes.

20^th May 2014, when entire India and off course Modi fannisters were celebrating victory of Lok Sabha Polls, Bihar and UP was the state, who gave maximum charm. And biggest rival of Modi, Mr Kumar resigned afterward and here the story begins.

File Pic. via FirstPost.com

Bihar and UP consist 1/4^th India, maximum number of  youths below 25 and 35. Talented youths -  IAS, IPS and various recognized posts. Second category – maximum numbers of Manual Casual labors and third category – farmers.

Modiji came like a masiha, youths were dancing on his rhythm. Suddenly Modiji announced, we should get ready to take bitter medicine and reforms begin. Alright, things were moving on their places, many government departments undergone with review. Government decided to go on quality works in government facilities.

Youths and casual labors/private employees eyeing on Achhe Din, received a biggest jolt when India, World’s 4^th largest steel producer turned net steel importer in the year to March 31, 2015 as an oversupplied China flooded it with cheap metals mainly for constructions. Big steel giants like SAIL, Bhusan, JSPL, JSW, Kalyani Steels were the biggest looser as India’s steel imports were jumped up to 72% in the fiscal year to end-March to 9.3 million tones and April-June, it was 49% approx 7.23 million tones.

A worker cuts a steel rod inside a Steel Factory. File Pic. via In.Reuters.com 

Consequences were that much worse, Bhusan received Q2 net loss of Rs 733 crore, Tata steels sales dropped by 17%, JSPL was forced to reduce price  by 25%, JSW productions also declined. Till then India was importing 1 million tones of steel a month, 12% import duty was not enough to protect Indian local industry.

In Sep-2015, Govt announced  20% Safeguard import duty on select steel products from recent surge in inward shipments.

23^rd Nov 2015, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said – Government is considering proactive steps to improve the health of Steel and Aluminum sectors, which are ruling under the impact of decline in global prices.

 Coal crisis was another setback for youths and casual labors/private employees eyeing on more job opportunities in India. Mostly Power companies bagging captive mines were unlikely to resolve the power crisis as about 75% of power capacity tied to these blocks do not have PPA (Power purchase agreement) with any state and those have no PPA were likely to suffer losses and turn into non-profitable assets. This is about 7,878MW commissioned and 12,399MW about to commission. Since, PPA were not signed, looking at payout, such companies became bankrupt.

A coal mine in odisha. Pic. via Vivan Mehra

Govt made Rs 400,000 crore by auction and allotment of 67 Coal blocks. But Coal auction failed to push production, only 25% blocks resume output of the 24 producing coal blocks auctioned to private companies and allotted to state utilities, only six have commenced production, of a combined 2.5 million tones (mt).

Hindalco Industries  bagged three coal mines in the Schedule-II auction — something that certainly paves the way for partial raw material security for the company but the market was not seem to be impressed. This is evident from the fact that the Hindalco stocks fallen six per cent afterward.

“The company runs the risk of locking itself at high captive costs. While the mines are already being purchased at close to or higher than the e-auction landed price, the cost differential is likely to widen in the long term due to the annual escalation clause on bids,” said Abhisar Jain, senior analyst with Centrum Broking.

Now in forth stage of coal-auction, The government is in the process of finalizing 8-10 blocks for the unregulated non-power sectors including cement, steel and aluminum, although the official was tight-lipped on the total reserves extractable from these mines.

First cancellation of more than 200 Coal Blocks, then fall of Steel Industry, Coal crisis and purchasing of coal mines at high rate claimed a new slowdown in Indian Industry – core sector, metal sector, coal sector, mining, transport section etc all are widely effected and most them were private employees, casual labors, engineers, and subsidiaries companies and their employees. Entire India knows – who are the most claimed casual labors, private employees and employed people- definitely Biharis.

Pic. via Shutterstock

Also few rumors also spread in the market that NDA Govt is taking revenge from UPA friendly companies. Current employees suffered, fresh waiting for employment suffered, youths got suffered and mostly are from Bihar or UP or nearby states.

There are following reasons, which were directly or indirectly joined hands in defeat of #BJP in Bihar :

1.     Unemployment – Slowdown of current businesses/Industries are fail to bring new employment to Biharis in Bihar or any part of India.

2.     Problem in current employment - As discussed about slowdown in Steel, Power, Core sectors etc., lakhs of employees effected. Some of them lost their jobs, many have not received their payments on time, were forced to comprise in the same job and even some of them are forced to continue low profile jobs than their previous jobs. Mostly low profile employees are from Bihar and nearby states.

3.     No sign of new Employment  - Modiji committed lots of things in Bihar. From agriculture to opening of Rice Mills & Fertilizers factories – Neem coating – Bla … Bla.. Bla..

Youths and casual labors failed to get a single opportunity of employment by BJP in Bihar or any other parts of India, causes & claimed due to Modi Govt.

4.     No opening in Government Jobs - 50% population of Bihar are mostly youths and below 25 and 35. Either casual labors, students, aspirants or farmers in category. Even educated youths of Bihar also do not received any concrete opening in Govt jobs, neither in Bihar nor in other parts of India.

5.     Mahangaae - Pulses (Dal) prices were touching sky rocket, and BJP Govt awoke very late, just in between elections. Repeated raids collected lakh tones of Pulses in various parts of India but very late. Mahangaae was on top agenda of Modiji. So he fail to impress the voters of Bihar. Strict actions were needed to formulate earlier to control rise of cost of pulses or similar products. A bad impression reached to people that current Govt is also sleeping like others or least bother about problems of poor community.

6.     Aarakshan or too much democracy in BJP - Initiation by RSS supremo on Aarakshan and inflammatory speeches or dialogues by several BJP leaders on  Dadri- Akhlakh killing then dalit- Sunapeda helped to polarize all OBC, EBC, SC/ST votes away from BJP.

7.     State leaders were on back foot - Election campaign was taking place like corporate duties. Amit Shah and Modiji forced all leaders out of game, people started lagging state faces. Normally a WIFE also complains if too much interference from Father/Mother-In-Laws and his husband is silently obeying to them. This was reflecting a kind of immatureness of state leadership.

8.     Flop show on Social Media - Flop show by BJP team continued in Bihar after Delhi elections. Crusaders fail to align youths of Bihar in main stream of BJP like Lok Sabha Polls.

9.     No where Kisans in loop - God knows, BJP knows or does not know, India is country of farmers and 70% people stays in India and Bihar.

10.  Power Pack of Poverty - SECC surveys say that 74% people of Rural India still earns less than Rs 5000 and in Bihar, it is around 71%. BJP fails to impress the last line crusaders – Antyoday. Not a single plan came for such, who can touch them heartily except Jan_Dhan Yojana.  But Jan_Dhan is all about their own earnings and income.

11.  Delay in Coal-Block distribution - Delay in coal block distributions and auctions at high rate also curtain the Industrial growth of India. Local Industry suffered widely, coal prices are touching sky rocket. Rs 600/- per ton coal is now available @ Rs 2500/-. Small Industries were forced to shut down in crisis of coal or high captive costs. Similar way, maximum sufferers are the Bihari labors, and low profile staffs working in various Industries.

12.   Rumors in Industry Sector - In revenge to UPA friendly Industries, Modi Govt is not taking any initiatives to enhance their conditions. Situations are worsened in such a way that, employees, labors, low profile staffs are not getting salary on time or delayed by 3-4 months. Hence family members, those are residing in Bihar, were in revenge mode while casting their votes for non-cooperation of BJP Central Govt to concern Industries. Entire India knows about the strength and contribution of Bihari labors in Industry. Lakhs of Bihari labors, private employees are associated with more than 100 of big companies and more than 1000 small Industries throughout India. 

Similar type of Challenges, BJP is going to face in Uttar Pradesh elections in 2017. Prima Facia this is story of entire India but various places have their own priorities.

Bihar and UP’s first love is a Job, least bother about developments and facilities, they can compromise.

Western India wants good facilities, they can compromise in Jobs.

Modi Govt has achieved lots of milestones in Defence, Internal Securities and Foreign Relations including FDI, Investments, advent of Technology. But Modi Govt must realize that there is a electoral process before and after every Govt. Our 70% populations are Youths, Villagers, Casual Labors and most important Electoral Voters. Its better to develop 100 Industrial corridors and 100 Software parks than 100 Smart Cities. We can wait for Bullet trains, standard facilities, Wi-Fi  but it is mandatory to impress the last line of Society. Programs should run from Bottom to Top, not from Corporate to Casual labors welfare. Middle class can take care of themselves if they will get social and internal security but it is very important that #Modi Govt invest his starting 10 years  for welfare of UP-Bihar-Bengal and Kisans-Casual Labors-Youths of entire India. Rest problems will automatically resolved, once Metros and mega towns will be free from outsiders of states. Facilities will enhance automatically. Rest on Defense and Foreign dialogues, Modiji is performing outstanding and Forbes has accepted him as 9^th Powerful Leader of World.

Reference : 1.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki and several news channels
                     2. Socio-Economic and Caste Census 2011 released by govt of India.
                     3. www.hindustantimes.com
                     4. www.business-standards.com
                     5. www.indiatoday.in

Bihar Elections 2015 : Legacy of Caste Politics, Mandal Commission, JP Movement & A Tale of Two Ideology

Jay Prakash Narayan or JP is new face of new thought of Bihar after golden time of great empire, emperors, Ashok, Budhha, Chanakya, Valmiki, Bismillah, Mahaveer, Nalanda etc. Latest trends are Madhubani paintings, Mithila paintings, Silk of Bhagalpur, Bhojpuri Film Industries, folks singer, festivals etc.

                                                          After independence JP had returned in state politics after long time in 1960. He was very much annoyed with corruption and miss-governance of state and centre, 1974 was the year of high inflation, poverty, unemployment, lack of supplies and essential commodities. He was leading a silent procession in form of peaceful agitation, procession was lathi charged. He addressed a big crowd on 5^th June 1974  in Ghandhi Maidan, Patna and said –

“This is a revolution friends ! We are not here merely to see the Vidhan Sabha dissolved. This is the only milestone of our journey. But we have a long way to go…. After 27 years f freedom, people of their country are wracked by hunger, rising prices, corruption……. Oppressed by every kind of the Justice…. It is a total revolution, we want, Nothing less !”

Lots of students from various parts of India, joined JP movement, also called “Bihar Movement”. JP asked for, “Total Revolution”.

JP attracted 1 Lakh crowd at Ramlila ground, Delhi and thrilled the place with a famous poem of national poet- Dinkar

“Singhasan Khali Karo Ke Janta Aati Hai”.

Crowd was full of energy and shattered the entire nation including Congress Govt, sitting in Centre, PM Indira Ghandhi ji. She understood that scene and later on Emergency in 1975 and so on……………….

File Pic. via FirstPost

 Bihar has lowest per capita income in India, $59.4 Billion GDP, 13^th state in GDP; 22% - Agriculture, 5% - Industry and Services – 73%  contribute in economy, 63.8% Literacy, Male literacy- 77.7% and Female literacy – 55%, Urban Literacy – 71.9%, Rural Literacy- 43.9%, Sex Ratio – 921 F : 1000 M, 58% Population is under 25 years, total Population is around 8 Crores and 85% population stays in rural areas of Bihar.

If we refer development figures of Bihar, GDP grew @4.0% between FY 1990-2004 and @10.8%  between FY 2005-12 , 15.5%@ FY 2012-13 and later on slipped @8.82% FY 2013-14, @9.92% FY 2014-15.
                                                   

Mandal Commission was set up in 1978 by Morarji Desai Govt to identify the socially, economically and educationally backward classes on certain indicators and aim was to add them in mainstream of society by suitable reservations. It was chaired by B. P. Mandal. Commission reported his report in Dec 30, 1980 and recommended 27% reservation for OBC people. By this sum up of reservation, it was reaching to 49.5% as quota in Govt jobs and public universities. Meanwhile Janta Party Govt collapsed, Later on V. P. Singh Govt tried to implement those recommendations of Mandal commission in 1989 and faces heat of strong protests by students and others from every parts of India. Not only he failed to implement them but his Govt also collapsed with that. That was the beginning of Mandal Politics in India.                                                                                                                         Students came out through J P Movement, grasped Mandal Politics as a opportunity in Bihar and UP. Socialism added in that as Ghee in political eatery. Mulayam Singh Yadav took command in UP and Lalu Prasad in Bihar. With the blow of socialistic perceptive, very soon both yadav eastablished in their places. Lalu Yadav sworn as CM in Bihar, claiming himself leader of backwards with own 11.7% yadav Voters in 1990. Cngress was in opposition. Lalu Prasad again won in 1995, BJP came in opposition. Sushil Modi elected as leader of opposition. Later on Mr Yadav resigned, when CBI charge sheeted him in fodder scam on PIL of Mr Modi. His wife Rabri Devi continued as CM, re elected in 2000 with M-Y calculations, since Muslims are also owning 14% vote. Claiming to success of cast politics, Lalu Yadav said,

“Swarg nahin, lekin swar diya (I have given voice, if not heaven)”, referring to poor and backwards.

Looking to caste distribution in Bihar :

Forward  (Bhumihar- 6%, Brahmin- 5%, Rajputs- 3% and kayasth- 1%) 

OBC  or BC-I (Yadav- 14%, Kurmis- 4%, Koeris- 8%)

MBC/EBC or BC-II (Kushwaha- 4%, Teli- 3% etc)

Muslims- 16.5%

Dalits- 6% (Paswan/Dusadh- 4%)

Mahadalits- 10%

  Still 85% population still lives in rural areas, out of that only 57% male are educated, 29.6% female are educated.

File Pic. via Zee News

In 2005 Bihar Assembly polls, assembly got hung and president rule imposed till Oct-2005. In fresh elections in Oct, people of Bihar ditched RJD Govt and gave clear mandate to JDU-BJP alliance, NDA won 143 seats out of 243 with 36% vote share. Mr Kumar reelected as CM of Bihar in Nov 2010 with a landslide victory, securing 206 seats out of 243.

Mr Kumar was appointed as Bihar CM in 2000 but resigned in lack of majority. Prior to CM post, Mr Kumar was working in NDA Cabinet as Rail Minister from 1998 to 99, later on rejoined cabinet from 2001 to 2004. The infamous burning of passengers by Muslim mob at Godhra railway station in Gujrat  and Godhra riots of 2002 happened happened during his tenure as railway minister.

Post Godhra, Mr Kumar enjoyed CM post in Bihar with BJP alliance but when Gujarat CM,  Narendra Modi upgraded as Chief Election Campaigner as BJP, he engaged in war of words to secure his secular credentials as Modi was represented as communal Hindu face and he was afraid to lose his Muslim votes,  resulted split of 17 years old coalition with BJP on 16^th June 2013. He retained his Govt with support of Congress and others. It was guessed, Mr Kumar was wishing to represent himself as face of Minorities, other hands Congress was losing his face among voters, he thought, scattered votes of Congress and secular votes will add in his accounts.

File Pic. via NDTV

BJP was smart enough to identify Mr Kumar successor as LJP. NaMo was represented as OBC face and model of development, resulted complete polarization of Swarn votes, strong backing of 16% non-Yadav OBCs and 22% most backward classes votes (EBC) plus LJP 5% paswan dalit votes created a new chemistry of 38.8% vote shares, never ever before succeed to secure 31 seats out of 40 in LS2014.

 In blow of NaMo Tsunami all swept, BJP returned back to power with massive victory and Mr Kumar shrinked at 2 seats of Lok Sabha from 20. It was a big embarrassment for Kumar and he resigned from his post and he played his 16% Mahadalit and Dalits card with sworning Jitan Ram Manjhi as a Bihar CM. Mr Manjhi denied to act like ROBOT and begun his own politics stunts with collecting some anti-Nitish JDU MLAs. Mr Kumar started luring in thirst of post and utilized all ways fingers to pull down Mr Manjhi. But since more than 10 MLAs shifted to Majhi camp, Mr Kumar reached on back foot and requested his traditional anti Mr Yadav to support on name of keeping communal forces out of power.

File Pic. via PTI

15^th Bihar Assembly is about to end and fresh elections will take place within months. JP ex- students reached under one umbrella and birthed one new alliance Janta Party to secure all mandal votes and stop MODIfications of voters. Initial days JDU invested in damage controls with RJD, one time traditional rival and targeted as Jungle Raaj, Kushashan and blaw blaw…..

 10^th May 2015,  Sarad Yadav says, “Nitish Kumar or I never said that there was Jungle Raaj (in Bihar during Lalu Prasad’s rule) ‘’.

June 8^th 2015,  Lalu Prasad Yadav says, “Nitish Kumar My Chhota Bhai, was kidnapped by BJP’’.

24^th June 2015, Nitish Kumar says, “Till I am there Jungle Raaj can never come. I had established rule of law and this will continue to prevail’’.

BJP is also making new strategy for Bihar Polls, keeping eyes on clear majority, believing on rebel of JDU and RJD both with open doors. Hijacking of Yadav votes, youths from all castes, securing OBC-MBC-Swarn votes are key majors of their steps. It is expected BJP will establish himself as Party for all, will try to shade his forward party image by giving more tickets to winning candidates from all sections. Modi magic, vision of powerful India and lots of new welfare programme, employment etc are few added advantage of BJP in which new voters- Youth may rely from all sections except minorities, this kind of strategy  also be added in campaigns of BJP & NDA to attract such.

File Pic. via Indian Express

BJP is believing of Modi magic and performance of 1 year of Modi Govt in centre, looking relaxed but focused.

14^th April 2015, Amit Shah says, “ Zero plus zero is a zero’’  referring new alliance of JP students.

22^nd June 2015, R V Paswan says “ NDA will win Bihar Polls with 2/3^rd majority’’.

Like Ekta Kapoor Serial’s suspense, in Bihar Election, natural allies of 17 years (BJP-JDU) are hostile to each other. Both parties have got new partners (RJD & LJP), meanwhile partners have some rebellions, informers (Manjhi & Yadav) who is helping the new enemies (BJP and JDU) of politics. One traditional rival (RJD) is now working with JDU hiding his own political ambitions of senior posts.Big Boss, who enters in every serials in climax are Amit Shah and Mulam Singh Yadav, who are waiting for their right move and defeat each other. This time Bihar Polls may give a strong message to either side. Planned campaign and new time voters may contribute a leading role in Bihar. In assembly polls,  fragmented mandate used to come so far, voters rely on local participation of leaders, hence selection of candidate will also play a big role. Apart from this VOTE KATWA has also some role to play. As a voter point of view, Voters are also afraid by return of Jungle Raaj, recently Mr Kumar has tried to give some message by arrest of few BAHUBALI, but how much it will impact of Voters, time will say !!!!

Reference : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki and several news channels