Is Bihar Election Results, A reflection of India ?

Few astonished youths were discussing in a office premises in leisure time of lunch, 32 seats in Lok Sabha and sudden loose in Bihar state assembly, is it fair !!!!

I was thinking overnight and talked with many friends and experts, those have keen watch on Indian Politics, Social Media and very true –  true Modi lovers and expert people from different different fields. Based on various discussions and data sharing, this blog took shape.

27^th Oct 2013, 5 exploded bombs in Patna, Gandhi Maidan rocked entire India, lakhs of crowd was waiting for Modiji, he came. Crowd cheered, he addressed and in the end- gave a hint – Go slow, take care, while returning to your homes.

20^th May 2014, when entire India and off course Modi fannisters were celebrating victory of Lok Sabha Polls, Bihar and UP was the state, who gave maximum charm. And biggest rival of Modi, Mr Kumar resigned afterward and here the story begins.

File Pic. via FirstPost.com

Bihar and UP consist 1/4^th India, maximum number of  youths below 25 and 35. Talented youths -  IAS, IPS and various recognized posts. Second category – maximum numbers of Manual Casual labors and third category – farmers.

Modiji came like a masiha, youths were dancing on his rhythm. Suddenly Modiji announced, we should get ready to take bitter medicine and reforms begin. Alright, things were moving on their places, many government departments undergone with review. Government decided to go on quality works in government facilities.

Youths and casual labors/private employees eyeing on Achhe Din, received a biggest jolt when India, World’s 4^th largest steel producer turned net steel importer in the year to March 31, 2015 as an oversupplied China flooded it with cheap metals mainly for constructions. Big steel giants like SAIL, Bhusan, JSPL, JSW, Kalyani Steels were the biggest looser as India’s steel imports were jumped up to 72% in the fiscal year to end-March to 9.3 million tones and April-June, it was 49% approx 7.23 million tones.

A worker cuts a steel rod inside a Steel Factory. File Pic. via In.Reuters.com 

Consequences were that much worse, Bhusan received Q2 net loss of Rs 733 crore, Tata steels sales dropped by 17%, JSPL was forced to reduce price  by 25%, JSW productions also declined. Till then India was importing 1 million tones of steel a month, 12% import duty was not enough to protect Indian local industry.

In Sep-2015, Govt announced  20% Safeguard import duty on select steel products from recent surge in inward shipments.

23^rd Nov 2015, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said – Government is considering proactive steps to improve the health of Steel and Aluminum sectors, which are ruling under the impact of decline in global prices.

 Coal crisis was another setback for youths and casual labors/private employees eyeing on more job opportunities in India. Mostly Power companies bagging captive mines were unlikely to resolve the power crisis as about 75% of power capacity tied to these blocks do not have PPA (Power purchase agreement) with any state and those have no PPA were likely to suffer losses and turn into non-profitable assets. This is about 7,878MW commissioned and 12,399MW about to commission. Since, PPA were not signed, looking at payout, such companies became bankrupt.

A coal mine in odisha. Pic. via Vivan Mehra

Govt made Rs 400,000 crore by auction and allotment of 67 Coal blocks. But Coal auction failed to push production, only 25% blocks resume output of the 24 producing coal blocks auctioned to private companies and allotted to state utilities, only six have commenced production, of a combined 2.5 million tones (mt).

Hindalco Industries  bagged three coal mines in the Schedule-II auction — something that certainly paves the way for partial raw material security for the company but the market was not seem to be impressed. This is evident from the fact that the Hindalco stocks fallen six per cent afterward.

“The company runs the risk of locking itself at high captive costs. While the mines are already being purchased at close to or higher than the e-auction landed price, the cost differential is likely to widen in the long term due to the annual escalation clause on bids,” said Abhisar Jain, senior analyst with Centrum Broking.

Now in forth stage of coal-auction, The government is in the process of finalizing 8-10 blocks for the unregulated non-power sectors including cement, steel and aluminum, although the official was tight-lipped on the total reserves extractable from these mines.

First cancellation of more than 200 Coal Blocks, then fall of Steel Industry, Coal crisis and purchasing of coal mines at high rate claimed a new slowdown in Indian Industry – core sector, metal sector, coal sector, mining, transport section etc all are widely effected and most them were private employees, casual labors, engineers, and subsidiaries companies and their employees. Entire India knows – who are the most claimed casual labors, private employees and employed people- definitely Biharis.

Pic. via Shutterstock

Also few rumors also spread in the market that NDA Govt is taking revenge from UPA friendly companies. Current employees suffered, fresh waiting for employment suffered, youths got suffered and mostly are from Bihar or UP or nearby states.

There are following reasons, which were directly or indirectly joined hands in defeat of #BJP in Bihar :

1.     Unemployment – Slowdown of current businesses/Industries are fail to bring new employment to Biharis in Bihar or any part of India.

2.     Problem in current employment - As discussed about slowdown in Steel, Power, Core sectors etc., lakhs of employees effected. Some of them lost their jobs, many have not received their payments on time, were forced to comprise in the same job and even some of them are forced to continue low profile jobs than their previous jobs. Mostly low profile employees are from Bihar and nearby states.

3.     No sign of new Employment  - Modiji committed lots of things in Bihar. From agriculture to opening of Rice Mills & Fertilizers factories – Neem coating – Bla … Bla.. Bla..

Youths and casual labors failed to get a single opportunity of employment by BJP in Bihar or any other parts of India, causes & claimed due to Modi Govt.

4.     No opening in Government Jobs - 50% population of Bihar are mostly youths and below 25 and 35. Either casual labors, students, aspirants or farmers in category. Even educated youths of Bihar also do not received any concrete opening in Govt jobs, neither in Bihar nor in other parts of India.

5.     Mahangaae - Pulses (Dal) prices were touching sky rocket, and BJP Govt awoke very late, just in between elections. Repeated raids collected lakh tones of Pulses in various parts of India but very late. Mahangaae was on top agenda of Modiji. So he fail to impress the voters of Bihar. Strict actions were needed to formulate earlier to control rise of cost of pulses or similar products. A bad impression reached to people that current Govt is also sleeping like others or least bother about problems of poor community.

6.     Aarakshan or too much democracy in BJP - Initiation by RSS supremo on Aarakshan and inflammatory speeches or dialogues by several BJP leaders on  Dadri- Akhlakh killing then dalit- Sunapeda helped to polarize all OBC, EBC, SC/ST votes away from BJP.

7.     State leaders were on back foot - Election campaign was taking place like corporate duties. Amit Shah and Modiji forced all leaders out of game, people started lagging state faces. Normally a WIFE also complains if too much interference from Father/Mother-In-Laws and his husband is silently obeying to them. This was reflecting a kind of immatureness of state leadership.

8.     Flop show on Social Media - Flop show by BJP team continued in Bihar after Delhi elections. Crusaders fail to align youths of Bihar in main stream of BJP like Lok Sabha Polls.

9.     No where Kisans in loop - God knows, BJP knows or does not know, India is country of farmers and 70% people stays in India and Bihar.

10.  Power Pack of Poverty - SECC surveys say that 74% people of Rural India still earns less than Rs 5000 and in Bihar, it is around 71%. BJP fails to impress the last line crusaders – Antyoday. Not a single plan came for such, who can touch them heartily except Jan_Dhan Yojana.  But Jan_Dhan is all about their own earnings and income.

11.  Delay in Coal-Block distribution - Delay in coal block distributions and auctions at high rate also curtain the Industrial growth of India. Local Industry suffered widely, coal prices are touching sky rocket. Rs 600/- per ton coal is now available @ Rs 2500/-. Small Industries were forced to shut down in crisis of coal or high captive costs. Similar way, maximum sufferers are the Bihari labors, and low profile staffs working in various Industries.

12.   Rumors in Industry Sector - In revenge to UPA friendly Industries, Modi Govt is not taking any initiatives to enhance their conditions. Situations are worsened in such a way that, employees, labors, low profile staffs are not getting salary on time or delayed by 3-4 months. Hence family members, those are residing in Bihar, were in revenge mode while casting their votes for non-cooperation of BJP Central Govt to concern Industries. Entire India knows about the strength and contribution of Bihari labors in Industry. Lakhs of Bihari labors, private employees are associated with more than 100 of big companies and more than 1000 small Industries throughout India. 

Similar type of Challenges, BJP is going to face in Uttar Pradesh elections in 2017. Prima Facia this is story of entire India but various places have their own priorities.

Bihar and UP’s first love is a Job, least bother about developments and facilities, they can compromise.

Western India wants good facilities, they can compromise in Jobs.

Modi Govt has achieved lots of milestones in Defence, Internal Securities and Foreign Relations including FDI, Investments, advent of Technology. But Modi Govt must realize that there is a electoral process before and after every Govt. Our 70% populations are Youths, Villagers, Casual Labors and most important Electoral Voters. Its better to develop 100 Industrial corridors and 100 Software parks than 100 Smart Cities. We can wait for Bullet trains, standard facilities, Wi-Fi  but it is mandatory to impress the last line of Society. Programs should run from Bottom to Top, not from Corporate to Casual labors welfare. Middle class can take care of themselves if they will get social and internal security but it is very important that #Modi Govt invest his starting 10 years  for welfare of UP-Bihar-Bengal and Kisans-Casual Labors-Youths of entire India. Rest problems will automatically resolved, once Metros and mega towns will be free from outsiders of states. Facilities will enhance automatically. Rest on Defense and Foreign dialogues, Modiji is performing outstanding and Forbes has accepted him as 9^th Powerful Leader of World.

Reference : 1.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki and several news channels
                     2. Socio-Economic and Caste Census 2011 released by govt of India.
                     3. www.hindustantimes.com
                     4. www.business-standards.com
                     5. www.indiatoday.in